Soaring conditions week of Nov 5th
Posted: Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:52 amMonday night look at mid-week
Tuesday looks like the best day, but confidence in the long-range outlook is poor.
On Tuesday, Ojai has the better lapse rate (as is typical), but with flow from the west it might be a better call to try to get to Ojai from SB. The lapse rate in SB is weaker but respectable above 3K. Cloudbase in SB also looks lower, maybe 4K early, but higher later in the day. Cloudbase in Ojai looks almost double, 8 or 9K after noon, so if you can get to Ojai it should be a fast trip through the valley. If you can get over Casitas Pass, then Fillmore should be within easy reach and Fillmore is looking good also with a good lapse rate above 5 or 6K. Looks like SB could see increasing clouds late in the day?, but Ojai and Fillmore are dryer. The wind looks nice. A light tailwind from the west, but only mid-single digits with some local stronger draw in places.
After Tuesday, conditions deteriorate through the week for XC flying with a weaker lapse rate and more wind at the higher altitudes.
On Wednesday, SB is showing an inversion above 2500 to 3K that relaxes some in the afternoon, but it doesn’t look promising for anything above 2500, and you can’t go very far if the top of the lift is below 3K, unless you are flying low stuff like the Training Hill or the Rock. If you do launch locally in SB on Wednesday, the Rock and the Bypass should work. The Skyport and EJ will likely be launchable, but not very soarable so you will end up down low anyway.
With a poor lapse rate above 2500, Ojai looks like it’s not worth the drive Wednesday through Friday, and you can’t likely get there from SB.
On Thursday, the inversion is SB is higher, maybe 6K. The lower level isn’t inverted, but the lapse rate below 3 or 4K looks weak. A little better above 5K with a sharp inversion around 6K. There is more wind up high on Thursday, but with the weak lapse rate the wind might not pull down much?
Friday is pretty far out and looking possibly windy from the north. The local cliffs look weak Tuesday through Thursday, and high tide is prime time midday. Friday might work on the local cliffs Friday if the forecasted wind associated with building high pressure metalizes.
This coming weekend might offer a little clearing offshore flow on Saturday, but it’s pretty far out. Gradients are currently forecasted to be neutral on Sunday, but will need to look at the lapse rate.
Bottom line… Fly Tuesday. If you can get over Casitas Pass you should make Fillmore and possibly go further. Consider the Training Hill on Wednesday and Thursday.
I’m out of town Thursday and Friday, so unfortunately, I’ll miss Mitch’s presentation at the club meeting.
